Sunday, September 20, 2020

The Supreme Court Appointment Is Not the Hill the Democrats Should Die On

There is no greater priority than getting Trump out of office.  Yes, it's a bummer that SCOTUS is going to be seriously out of balance.  (Truth in advertising:  I'm what used to be called a moderate conservative, so this bothers me less than it will a lot of you.)  But there's ultimately nothing to be done, unless at least four Republicans are sufficiently bothered by the prospect of establishing precedents and then blowing through them the very next time the issue comes up, or at least if they think that moderating can give them more swing votes than it loses from the base.  (Hint:  they probably won't think that.)

If Trump and McConnell want to ram this through, they can.  The Democrats can probably drag it out past the election with procedural tricks if they want to, but that's about it.

They should absolutely not drag it out.  That's an excellent way to lose the election.

I know it's like letting a particularly repulsive parasite run around inside your head, but think like Trump for a moment:  How many juicy reality TV episodes is a scorched earth nomination fight worth to him?  Now:  How many episodes is an expedited confirmation process worth?

Given that, barring a miracle, all of the possible outcomes result in RBG's seat being filled by a conservative, let's go through the sub-outcomes.  There are really only two of them:

  1. Democrats fight and successfully delay the confirmation until after the election.  In this case, Trump will incessantly tweet about how DISRUPTIVE SOCIALIST DEMOCRATS WANT TO PACK THE SUPREME COURT AND WILL USE ANY MEANS NECESSARY TO DO SO.  This instantly converts all of the "I like the outcomes we get from Trump in power but he's too loathsome for me to bother to go vote" fence-sitters into people willing to brave going to the polls in a pandemic, pull the lever for Trump, and then throw up in the bushes while dousing themselves in hand-sanitizer.  (Whether the hand-sanitizer is for coronavirus or for their souls is an open question.)  Then, win or lose, Trump gets his nominee confirmed.  Personally, I'd much rather we enjoyed the "lose" option there.
  2. Democrats go limp, call the question themselves, vote against the nominee, lose, and put the issue behind them.  Trump TV is left with a bunch of boring episodes right before the election, and the fence-sitters decide to stay home, secure in the knowledge that they've gotten maximum value out of a one-term Trump, and can weather the Biden storm as a result.

The Democrats can fund-raise on this issue.  They can jinn up their base and most of the swing voters.  But that's going to happen no matter what.  What they need to be doing is finding ways to make the soft Trumpkins (i.e., the ones who have trouble voting for the Worst Person in the World, even to further their deeply held beliefs) want to stay home.

Another thing the Democrats can do to blow their own feet off:  Threaten to pack the court, or add four more states, or otherwise drink the whole pitcher of Norm-Shattering Kool-Aid.  Note that the argument that "we're just doing what you guys did" has absolutely zero impact on anything, and the Trumpkins will be perfectly happy to be outraged at the radical erosion of societal norms.  As a rule, people aren't good at self-awareness on things like this.

Moral of the story:  In the immortal words of your former leader, "Don't do stupid shit."

Some things the Democrats can do, which will actually help them:

  1. Ask pointed questions of the nominee on their opinions with respect to election law.  Try to pin them down as much as possible, to establish predicates for the inevitable court cases that come out of the impending clusterfuck.
  2. Ask them if they will recuse themselves from any election disputes.
  3. Actually push to expedite the process.  McConnell is the furthest thing from a fool that there is, and will almost certainly understand the value of dragging his feet on confirmation until after the election.  If the Democrats can catch him slow-rolling in opposition to them trying to expedite the process, they can use that as a powerful bludgeon in the elections.

Finally, one last issue:  When I tried this argument out on my wife, her instant reaction was, "But then Trump's nominee will be there to help him rig the election!"  That's possible, and it's one of the reasons why a good chunk of the Democrats' committee time ought to be spent hemming the nominee in as much as possible.  But the important thing to remember is that this is going to happen, unless four Republicans grow a backbone.  Better to have it happen on the most favorable electoral terms possible, rather than getting sucked into yet another game of Lucy-with-the-football with Trump.

Please don't be stupid.

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