Sunday, November 4, 2012

Intrade, Sunday Afternoon

Note that Obama, after rising substantially over the last couple of weeks, is now starting to tail off again:

Still not looking good, but you'd expect to be seeing things rising close to 100% if there were a real consensus yet.  A negative first derivative is a good thing.

UPDATE 11/07/12:  I'm retroactively nominating this post for this year's First Annual Radical Moderation Whistling in the Dark Award, for the most willful denial of reality written down this year.

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